France Football has launched a formal investigation into a series of suspicious wagers that correctly predicted the exact top-five finishing order of the 2024 Ballon d’Or, resulting in nearly £149,000 in winnings. The event’s organizers have contacted police after French media outlet Upside identified 12 linked accounts on the US-based cryptocurrency prediction market, Polymarket. These accounts, created between October 1 and October 20, placed over $264,000 in bets before the Monday ceremony, raising severe concerns about a leak of confidential results prior to the announcement of football’s most prestigious individual award.
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The accuracy of the predictions was statistically improbable, as the group correctly identified Harry Kane as the winner, followed by Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Lionel Messi in that precise sequence. Raphaël Pautard, co-founder of Upside, noted that the 12 accounts displayed strikingly similar activity patterns, suggesting coordinated action rather than independent forecasting. This level of precision in predicting a subjective award based on complex voting criteria has intensified scrutiny regarding how the final rankings were compromised before the London Palladium ceremony.
The incident marks a significant challenge for the integrity of sports betting and prediction markets, particularly those utilizing cryptocurrency platforms with limited regulatory oversight. While France Football continues its inquiry, the involvement of law enforcement signals a serious breach of protocol. The outcome of this probe will likely determine whether the £149,000 in winnings is forfeited and could lead to broader regulatory changes for prediction markets involved in high-stakes sports events.
Source: The Guardian Sport
